Monday, August 22, 2016

2016.08.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.08.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


















The cycle model is exhibiting a right phase shift which has flattened the predictive curve. Nevertheless, the model suggests some upward pressure on prices going into the Fall and through the end of the year. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.



2016.06.03 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, August 21, 2016

2016.08.19 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.08.19 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart



















It is very unusual in this type of cycle model that the predictive price curve and actual price curve remain so tightly aligned over time. The model strongly suggests a turning point in the NASDAQ may occur in the September 1, 2016 time frame.  The previous iteration of the cycle model is seen below and here on the blog.



2016.07.29 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart
 

Sunday, August 14, 2016

2016.08.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.08.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model suggests that silver prices are looking towards a minor correction over the next few months.  As with the gold price cycle model, the rightward phase shift seems to have ended, and the model, for now, is in the groove, which is a meta-technical term. Note the correct prediction of a reversal when the Z-score approached -2.5.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.





2016.07.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Friday, August 12, 2016

2016.08.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.08.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart


















The gold cycle model seems to be "in the groove" as the right phase shifting of the predictive curve is played out at the moment. Readers may recall this is what occurred with the XOI.X model, which then proved to be fairly robust thereafter.  That said, recall the motto: "All models are wrong but some are useful."  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.



2016.06.24 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, July 31, 2016

2016.07.29 Nasdaq Cycle Model Chart

2016.07.29 Nasdaq Cycle Model Chart




















The Nasdaq cycle model phase shifted to the right since the last iteration in May, and now suggests a peak in the index at the beginning of September, 2016. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.




2016.05.28 Nasdaq Cycle Model Chart


















Sunday, July 3, 2016

2016.07.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.07.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model suggests that the silver price is ahead of the modeled curve prediction.  Usually, a divergence of this magnitude has tended to quickly reverse.  On the other hand, the model is also phase shifting, and it appears that the future silver price may be getting in line with the gold price cycle model. Note that the timing of reversals is relatively preserved, while the magnitude at the point of reversals is less predictable.  A previous iteration of the model is seen below and on the blog.




2016.06.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, June 26, 2016

2016.06.24 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.06.24 Gold Cycle Model Chart























The gold cycle model has been performing reasonably well over the past few months. There is strong cyclical pressure for higher prices going into Summer and Fall. A reminder that these models are based on extraction of cycles based on historical data, and contain no information on "current events."  Previous iterations of the model are found below and on the blog.






2016.05.20 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.04.01 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Friday, June 24, 2016

2016.06.23 VIX Cycle Model Chart

2016.06.23 VIX Cycle Model Chart

















The VIX cycle model continues to show increasing upward pressure on the index through the Summer and early Fall. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.




2016.04.29 VIX Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, June 4, 2016

2016.06.04 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.06.03 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The most recent model run suggests the index is ending its pause and the resumption of a rise is imminent.  The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.





2016.04.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, May 28, 2016

2016.05.28 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.05.28 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart


















I have worked on and off for the past six months on this new model featuring the NASDAQ index. It has been tested on out-of-sample data and passes with flying colors. Nevertheless, once again a reminder that all models are wrong but some are useful.  The model suggests a change in the long term direction of the index beginning in the mid-June time frame.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

2016.05.20 Gold cycle Model Chart

2016.05.20 Gold Cycle Model Chart


















The gold cycle model suggests continued upward prices in gold going into the Summer/Fall. It appears that the previous phase extension has slowed down, so to use Mr Anon's term, perhaps the model may be "in the groove."  Below is the previous model run also shown on the blog here.



2016.04.01 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, May 15, 2016

2016.05.13 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.05.13 DJIA Cycle Model Chart
















The DJIA cycle model is phase shifting to the right, but still continues to converge relatively quickly. If the model is correct, there is a lot of downward pressure on prices from a cyclical perspective.  I would urge readers to look at the previous model run here for additional comment. It is also shown below.


2016.03.24 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, May 8, 2016

2016.05.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.05.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model suggests that silver prices may have reached a local maximum, and that there is downward pressure now to below $16. The model has been performing relatively well, as can be seen from a previous model run below and here on the blog.



2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, May 1, 2016

2016.04.29 VIX Cycle Model Chart

2016.04.29 VIX Cycle Model Chart

















The VIX cycle model has continued to phase shift to the right. Currently, the model suggests higher VIX values moving into Summer and Fall. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.





2016.03.29 VIX Cycle Model Chart

Friday, April 15, 2016

2016.04.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.04.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















There is a slow right phase shift in the XOI model, however, the local minimum of the index price curve continues to scrape around 1000, suggesting that much lower levels for the index are much less probable.  The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.



2016.03.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, April 2, 2016

2016.04.01 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.04.01 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















Gold prices corrected consistent with the divergence seen in the previous model run shown below and here on the blog. Going forward, the model suggests a strong and increasing upward bias in prices.


2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

2016.03.29 VIX Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.29 VIX Cycle Model Chart


















Coiled spring or sprung model? The next few days should decide.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

2016.03.26 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.24 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

















The DJIA cycle model is now at an extreme divergence between actual and predicted level for the index. Note that in comparison with a run of the same model on 2015.12.31 shown below and here on the blog, a phase change has occurred, in the opposite direction I expected. The current run of the model suggests an even steeper slope down for the rest of the year, whereas the December run suggested a flat period for index prices between march and September.  Also note that I had to adjust the Z-score scale as the divergence is heading towards -2.5. This is the largest divergence since Spring, 1981; August 1946; Spring 1943; Spring, 1930; October, 1929.  The lowest Z-score for the model was -3.53 in September, 1929.  Remembering that all models are wrong but some are useful, my current interpretation is that there are extremely powerful convergent  downward cycles at play here, from yearly to decadal,  but the caveat is that central bank liquidity and forex management do not enter into the model whatsoever.



2015.12.31 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, March 12, 2016

2016.03.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.11 XOI Cycle Model Chart

















The XOI cycle model suggests that the index may have traversed its low for the year. The multi-month phase change which has pushed the predictive curve to the right may have ended.  The high positive Z-score, as shown below and here on the blog, indicated a high chance of a positive reversal which did occur.



2016.02.12 XOI Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, March 6, 2016

2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The current silver cycle model illustrates the nice reversal to the predictive curve that was indicated on the last run of the model on 2016.02.12 as shown below and here on the blog.

Notice that the difference between the actual curve and predictive curve, as indicated by a large negative Z-score suggested a reversal was highly likely.

Inasmuch as we note no evidence of a phase change for now,  I would interpret the model as indicating that a local maximum in price may occur in the May 2016 time frame.


2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, February 27, 2016

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The past few weeks suggest that the multi-month phase extension of the predictive price curve for Au may have finally ended.  The price curve is above the predictive curve at this juncture, which suggests some mild downward pressure on prices in the near term, but not likely a break in the overall long term rise. Post hoc one can make up a series of narratives "explaining" why this is occurring now, as opposed to a year ago.  A previous iteration of the model from October, 2015 is shown below and here on the blog.  If you compare them, it may inform your judgement regarding how useful or useless these 'wrong' models are, depending on your perspective.  I get some comments where naive individuals think that because the gold price didn't rise exactly on a particular date, the model is useless. The shortest answer I have is that they are all wrong, but quite useful to me, and to some, but not all readers.


2015.10.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart




Saturday, February 20, 2016

2016.02.19 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.19 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

















The divergence between actual and predicted suggests that we should see a downward drift in the price curve in the March to April time frame. Going back to June of 2015, the first iteration of this model seems to be holding up fairly well, as shown below and here on the blog.


2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart




Wednesday, February 17, 2016

2016.02.17 VIX Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.17 VIX Cycle Model Chart



















The VIX cycle model suggests that the VIX may have bottomed at this time, and that ongoing forward we should see a robust spike to the upside. In addition, I have four VIX neural net models, two of which use the Z-score as input, all of which have today also issued buy signals on the open on February 18. . So I'm sticking my neck out, with a 68% chance of success.  All models are wrong, some are useful, and some models give the odds.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and clicking on the caption will give the original post.


2016.01.06 VIX Cycle Model Chart



 

Sunday, February 14, 2016

2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The XOI.X cycle model predictive curve shows both a shift to the right from an error-appropriate phase change as well as an amplitude change. Looking at the charts below from previous iterations, the high Z-score was resolved to the upside to touch the predictive curve. Because the predictive curve has a positive slope going forwards, any continuing phase shift is not likely to be associated with a major amplitude change to the negative. I would interpret this as another data point supporting the premise that XOI.X is not likely to go much below 800 going forwards.  And finally, remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful.  The previous charts can also be accessed by clicking on the captions.




2016.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


















2015.12.14 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart







Saturday, February 13, 2016

2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart
















The silver cycle model suggests silver may have found a bottom for the immediate time frame. The actual price has deviated from the predicted price enough so that according to the model, silver prices should experience a negative correction on the way to a local maximum of ~$16 in the May time frame.
Below is the previous iteration of the model, also shown on the blog here.


2015.12.18 Silver Cycle Model Chart