Saturday, November 23, 2013

2013.11.22 VIX Cycle Model Chart


















The VIX cycle model continues to perform well, and is suggesting that we may have seen a low in volatility for at least one year beginning in late 2013 and into 2014.  The previous iteration of the model posted on 2013.10.25 appears below.




Sunday, November 17, 2013

2013.11.15 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model continues to indicate lower prices for silver going into the end of the last quarter of 2013. I do not want to speculate on the reasons why the gold and silver cycle models are divergent in the 2014-2015 time frame.  They are constructed and computed independently of each other. On the other hand, they have both been convergent in the short term, suggesting that going forward, if one of the models is "wrong" this should emerge as a major divergence with predicted price as we move into first quarter 2014.