Saturday, August 8, 2015

2015.08.07 DJIA Cycle Model Chart


2015.08.07 DJIA Cycle Model Chart
















The new DJIA cycle model seems to be performing well. I would caution readers that the previous DJIA models tested well on out-of-sample tests, but then managed to crash and burn. A reasonable interpretation is that from a historical  business cycle perspective, dating to 1896. there is strong downward pressure on the DJIA.  The first iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.


2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

Monday, August 3, 2015

2015.08.03 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.03 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model is suggesting higher prices peaking in the October, 2015 time frame. The model is performing relatively well, and given we are at an inflection point, it will be informative to see if the model holds over the next two months. The previous iteration of the model, which suggested a drop in price,  is shown below and here on the blog.


2015.06.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart