Saturday, October 10, 2015

2015.10.09 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.10.09 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















As predicted from the last iteration of the silver cycle model shown here and below, we did get a small spike in silver prices though somewhat later than the model prediction, which is within error. What is happening is a continued phase shift so that the local maximum may have already been reached, and it appears lower than in previous model runs.

2015.09.11 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015.10.08 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.10.08 DJIA Cycle Model Chart


















The DJIA cycle model continues to converge rapidly, and is now at the point where we might expect the downward trend to resume.  Note there was a previous overshoot on the downside which corrected. Also, a good example of how factors not captured by the model, namely, the Fed getting cold feet on the promised interest rate rise, effect model performance. Look at the curves and guess when the Fed retracted the possibility of an imminent rise in rates.  Below is the first iteration of this model, which also appears on the blog here.



2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, October 4, 2015

2015.10.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.10.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The gold cycle model continues to suggest a rise in price, however, several of the longer term decadal cycles continue to extend within their error parameters. However, the Z-score is also extending into 5 sigma territory, so if a reversal does not occur in the next few weeks, the usefulness of the model can be seriously questioned.  The model provides an example of what happens when cycles extend within their error parameters.  The model run from 2015.05.15 is shown below and here on the blog.


2015.05.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart