Thursday, October 6, 2016

2016.10.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















A major divergence between the predicted price and actual price has occurred, but there is no rightward phase shift in the predictive curve at the moment.  Looking back at the model history, this level of divergence where the Z-score exceeded 3.77 occurred a few times.  In 1973.08.15, 1974.07.04, and 1980.03.27.  On all those occasions, the actual price resolved to the upside within a six week period.  So, the model may be broken, always a possibility, or a similar historical reversion will occur within a short time period.  A previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.08.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart